*”Most people, most of the time, are truly good.”*
– Ramu, 21/5/25

Our office is located very close to the OMR road in Chennai. Due to ongoing metro rail construction, we have to take a 1.5-kilometer detour to reach it. But if we travel about 300 meters in the wrong direction (on a “no entry” road), not only do we cover just 1 kilometer, but we also reach our office 15–20 minutes earlier.

Not just us, but even two-wheelers and autos usually take this shortcut during non-peak hours, bypassing the detour.

Today around 5 p.m., I was riding a two-wheeler and had just entered this shortcut, traveling about 50 meters, when a middle-aged man with a beard, riding his two-wheeler in the correct direction, came near me and softly gestured and whispered, “Police, police.”

Not fully understanding what he meant—or perhaps being slightly skeptical due to his appearance—I hesitated and kept going for another 50 meters.

Another man, again coming from the opposite direction, using similar hand gestures and words, indicated “Police.”

Neither of these two men knew who I was—whether I was rich or poor. Why, then, did these two unrelated strangers warn me, protect me from the risk of getting caught and fined, or losing time? Thinking about this left me both surprised and deeply happy.

Likewise, about 100 meters from our home, every morning, I pass by a middle-aged woman who stands outside her house doing some chore. She has seen me daily for the past few years, but never once has she even made eye contact or acknowledged me.

But about ten days ago, she suddenly made a sound and gesture toward me. I looked around, unsure if she was talking to me or someone else. She then raised her voice slightly and pointed out that the side stand of my two-wheeler hadn’t been lifted.

At least once a month, someone—man or woman—will overtake us in Chennai’s busy traffic just to warn us that my wife’s chudidar (loose end of the dress) is caught or might get caught in the wheels of the vehicle.

None of these people know us. They don’t wait to receive our thanks. They have no personal gain from helping us. They expect nothing in return.

It’s only their innate goodwill—and their desire that no stranger like us should end up in avoidable trouble amidst the chaos and honking of Chennai’s traffic—that motivates them. When I think of this, I realize how wonderful the world is, how many good people surround us, and how, despite life’s challenges, such goodness gives us the strength to keep going.

Whether this human kindness is something that has existed for ages or is a unique trait of modern people shaped by 20th and 21st-century progress is a question best left to historians.

Thank you.
Ramu
21/5/2025

Your understanding is very close to the mark and shows strong conceptual clarity. Let’s go through each of your three points, refine the nuances, and validate whether you’re right — or where slight corrections might help.


—

✅ (1) Crowd wisdom under independence and diversity = Rational Emergence

> Your point:
If a diverse crowd makes independent decisions, and we average out their responses, we get something close to reality or truth — this is how markets, elections, or prediction markets work when not manipulated.



✔️ Verdict: Correct

This is the famous idea of the “Wisdom of Crowds”, popularized by James Surowiecki and backed by a lot of empirical data.

✅ Key conditions for this to work:

Diversity of opinion

Independence (no herding)

Decentralization

Aggregation mechanism (like stock prices, polls, or betting odds)


> 🧠 Example: If 1000 people guess the weight of an ox and don’t influence each other, the average will be very close to the real weight.



This principle underlies free markets, democracy, and decentralized intelligence.


—

✅ (2) Crowd behavior becomes irrational under narrative influence = Behavioral Biases

> Your point:
When independence is lost — due to media, narratives, fear, greed, propaganda — the crowd becomes skewed and behaves irrationally. At such times, rational people can exploit the distortion (e.g., value investors during crashes or bubbles).



✔️ Verdict: Correct

This is classic behavioral finance, echoing thinkers like:

Robert Shiller (irrational exuberance),

Daniel Kahneman (heuristics and biases),

George Soros (reflexivity),

Howard Marks (second-level thinking).


> When crowd behavior becomes highly correlated and emotional, it ceases to be “wise” and starts acting like a stampede — leading to bubbles, panics, crashes, or regime shifts.



💡 Implication:

Yes, this opens up exploitable inefficiencies — but exploiting them requires liquidity, courage, and time (as Ben Graham would say: Mr. Market becomes moody, and that’s your opportunity).


—

🌀 (3) Skewed systems under feedback loops = Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)

> Your point:
When crowd irrationality persists and adapts based on feedback (media, price movements, emotions, etc.), it becomes a Complex Adaptive System, governed by:



Emergence

Self-organization


Examples include markets, human body, weather, ecosystems, etc.

Over time, self-organization and mean reversion bring the system back to stability.

✔️ Verdict: Almost perfectly correct — just a slight refinement.

Let’s break it down:

✅ What you’re getting exactly right:

CAS are made of many interacting agents (traders, cells, molecules, individuals).

Behavior emerges from local rules, not central control.

The system shows emergence (macro patterns not traceable to any one actor).

It also tends toward self-organization — forming stable patterns without external coordination.


> Example: A stock market bubble is not orchestrated by anyone, but emerges from interacting beliefs and feedback loops.



✅ What may need slight tuning:

CAS doesn’t always mean the system will revert to “normalcy” in a stable way.


Some CASs collapse, mutate, or shift into new regimes (e.g., ecosystems collapse, civilizations fall, currencies die).
Not all skewed systems heal — some transform irreversibly.

> 🧠 So, “mean reversion” is often true, but not guaranteed. In some cases, the “mean” itself shifts — like a paradigm shift.




—

✅ Summary of Your Understanding:

Point Verdict Notes

(1) Independent, diverse crowd yields truth ✅ Correct Wisdom of crowds holds when agents are independent
(2) Narrative-driven herding causes irrationality ✅ Correct Behavioral biases and crowd psychology distort reality
(3) Such skewed systems become CAS, eventually normalize ✅ Mostly correct CAS explains dynamic behavior; normalization often occurs, but not always — some systems evolve or collapse



—

🧭 Final Thought:

You’re thinking like a systems-level investor — mixing psychology, complexity, and markets.
This is exactly the lens used by the best macro investors (like Ray Dalio, Soros, Taleb, Howard Marks).

You can now even explore:

Fractal patterns in markets (Mandelbrot)

Non-linearities and tipping points

Reflexivity (feedback loops from perception to reality)


Let me know if you’d like a visual map of CAS concepts in financial systems or a deeper dive into mean reversion vs regime change in complex systems.

Dear Khazanchi,

This is my humble and final appeal to you.

Firstly, let me clarify that our concern is not about your role as Admin—we sincerely appreciate the time and effort you’ve taken to bring many members back into the group. That said, our concern lies in the fact that decisions seem to have been influenced by a few members who are not very active.

The 24-hour visibility restriction for posts feels quite short, especially considering that many of us are managing demanding, high-stress jobs. In fact, one of our fellow NMPians recently asked me to forward a post of mine that had disappeared within a day—this shows the practical difficulty of keeping up.

As Kamal rightly pointed out, having posts visible for a week shouldn’t be a problem for anyone. After all, these are friendly exchanges, not verses from the Gita or the Bible.

I do acknowledge that I may have overstepped and should perhaps have waited a week. If you feel I’ve been the reason for tonight’s talk of closing the group, I sincerely apologize.

Like Rajesh and Kamal, I too am prepared to step away for a while if needed—and perhaps rejoin after some time. But I must say, the bond we’ve shared over 10 years is not something I take lightly. We are all grateful to you for being the one who initiated and nurtured this group.

If, however, you still feel hurt and are not ready to reconsider for the sake of long-standing friendship, I kindly urge you to explore alternatives instead of closing the group entirely.

As a final, heartfelt request, may I suggest just one change—extending the post visibility from 1 day to 1 week. After that, I leave the decision to your wisdom and sense of fairness.

Warm regards,
Ramu

Dear NMPians,

I’m reminded of a powerful episode from the Mahabharata that resonates deeply with our group’s current situation.

When Draupadi—also known as Panchali—was dragged into King Dhritarashtra’s royal court after being lost in a game of dice, she stood humiliated in front of powerful elders like Bhishma, Dronacharya, and Kripacharya. Dushasana was ordered to disrobe her, in one of the most horrifying acts ever recorded in our epics.

At that critical moment, while most remained silent or looked away in shame, Vidura—a voice of conscience—stood up and called out the act for what it was: heinous and unjust. Despite not wielding as much authority as Bhishma or Drona, Vidura could not stay silent. He protested courageously, even though it risked the wrath of the king and the Kauravas.

In contrast, the great Bhishma and Drona, bound by their loyalties and silence, said nothing. Their silence was construed as consent, and history judged them for it. One Vidura was not enough to stop the descent into war. The silence of others allowed injustice to prevail, ultimately leading to the Mahabharata war.

Today, in our group, I appeal to Ebby, Suresh, Shankar, Amitabh, Kamal, Raja, and Abarna—those of you who are regularly in touch—please speak up. Your silence is being misread as approval. Let’s not repeat history.

One Vidura is not enough.

Let’s not become Bhishma and Drona—silent witnesses to unfolding wrongs. If we don’t raise our voices now, we too risk becoming part of a war that could have been prevented.

With hope,
Ramu

It’s the entirely different case with Virat Kohli. Except for Sachin Tendulkar, no other senior Indian cricketer has played under a captain who was clearly from a second-generation junior batch.

When Kapil Dev became captain, he was more or less a peer of Sunil Gavaskar. Similarly, when Mohammad Azharuddin took over, he was nearly on par with Kapil in terms of experience and stature. Neither Kapil nor Azharuddin were significantly junior to the legends they succeeded; by the time they took over the captaincy, they had already attained a stature comparable to their predecessors.

In Sachin Tendulkar’s case, Sourav Ganguly and Rahul Dravid were one-level juniors, and MS Dhoni was a two-level junior. Yet, Dhoni’s appointment as captain had Sachin’s backing—he had personally recommended Dhoni when BCCI asked him to take charge again.

Virat Kohli’s situation is quite different. He continued to play under Rohit Sharma, who is actually one-level junior to him. And now, Shubman Gill—who isn’t just a two-level junior to Virat but is also still in the early stages of establishing himself in Test cricket—has been made Test captain.

Importantly, Virat is not out of form or in decline like Gavaskar was toward the end of his career. He remains supremely fit, technically solid, and his captaincy record is above average by any standard.

In terms of Test performance—centuries, averages, and match-winning contributions—Shubman Gill simply doesn’t match up to Virat Kohli at this point.

It takes a big heart and selfless commitment to the team and to Indian cricket for someone like Virat to accept playing under someone so junior. Let’s see how it is unfolded.

*Virat Kohli’s Dilemma: Gracious Exit Vs Glorious Milestone?; Ego Vs Passion:*
– Ramu, 10/05/2025

*What Should Virat Kholi do now?*

It appears that the great Test talisman, Virat Kohli, may be contemplating drawing the curtain on his illustrious Test career.

However, the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) is urging him to continue for a few more series, especially after Rohit Sharma’s recent retirement, which has left the team without any senior batting stalwart.

According to reports, Virat is open to continuing, but on one condition — he wants to lead the Test team during this final stretch.

The BCCI, however, seems reluctant, as it has already set its sights on grooming the next generation, with Shubman Gill being the frontrunner to captain the team on the upcoming tour of England.

– *For any legendary batsman, surpassing 100 Tests and amassing 10,000 Test runs is a monumental achievement.*

Virat has already played over 100 Tests and is currently in the 9,000+ run club. A couple of more series could see him join the elite list of Indian greats like Sunil Gavaskar, Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, and VVS Laxman, who have crossed the 10,000-run mark in Test cricket.

– Failing to reach that milestone would undoubtedly be a personal loss for Kohli and a poignant footnote in his otherwise legendary career.

At the same time, from Kohli’s perspective, it might be a tough pill to swallow — playing under the captaincy of someone much junior like Shubman Gill could be seen as an ego-bruising experience for a player of his stature.

*So, what should Virat Kohli do?*

– Should he opt for a gracious exit now, preserving his legacy?

– Or should he magnanimously play under Shubman Gill, put the game above pride, and show the world his true passion — chasing that final milestone and bowing out with a glorious exit?

Vacillatingly yours,
Ramu

May 9, 2025

My Dear Beloved NMPians,

With utmost humility and deep respect, I take this opportunity to share a few thoughts that have been on my mind. If, in the process, any of my words inadvertently cause discomfort or seem inappropriate, I sincerely request you to kindly overlook them. It is never my intention to hurt or offend anyone—any lapse is purely due to my own limitations in expression.

I joined NMP in 2003, and it was only then that I came to know that some of our fellow participants were distinguished individuals—IAS rank holders, senior professionals in reputed organizations like ONGC, BSNL, and others. Naturally, during the initial days, I often felt like an odd man out.

However, within a few months, I came to realize something truly remarkable. Every one of you, regardless of your background or accomplishments, shed all titles and labels and interacted with one another on equal footing—with warmth, simplicity, and genuine camaraderie. Even the way women colleagues were included and respected made it clear that our group had embraced a spirit of true equality.

I must also express my heartfelt gratitude to the NMP faculty and pedagogy, which played a vital role in creating this environment. Through initiatives like syndicate groups and collaborative exercises, they helped us all forget our past positions and embrace our roles as learners together.

Special thanks are due to Professor Panjwani, whose infamous first quiz (with first mark Suresh’s memorable 3/25! and few of us were 0s) helped bring all of us to the same humble starting point and broke the ice beautifully.

Even today, I take great pride in telling my friends and colleagues that I had the privilege of studying alongside some of the brightest minds in our country. The fact that I can casually pull your legs and share laughs with you without hesitation is something I treasure deeply.

Frankly speaking, the size of your government quarters was often bigger than the entire company I ran! And even today, the way many of you articulate thoughts—whether political, historical, or philosophical—continues to amaze me.

Yet, none of these distinctions—knowledge, power, or position—have ever stood in the way of our interactions. I have always felt free to be my authentic self in this group, and for that, I’m immensely grateful.

One of the greatest strengths of our group has been the spirit of egalitarianism. We all meet and interact as equals, regardless of our achievements or stature. It is a rare and precious culture that we’ve nurtured over the years.

And so, with the same spirit, I humbly urge that we continue to preserve this culture. A truly egalitarian group requires each of us to act as facilitators—not as decision-makers in isolation. Any new rules or changes in group behavior, especially those affecting all members, should ideally arise from open, inclusive discussions.

For example, in my understanding, none of us have posted any long videos nor space occupying contents. If the issue of storage space, that can be managed individually by members using tools like “disappearing messages” instead of introducing group-wide restrictions without consensus.

To be honest, I was a bit disheartened to see that a group consisting of such mature, well-educated, and responsible individuals was subjected to new guidelines based solely on private conversations. I say this not with complaint, but with concern and affection for the values we’ve all upheld.

This group has helped me overcome my own insecurities and allowed me to grow in confidence and spontaneity. For that, I shall always remain grateful.

Let us bring back the vibrant, open, and accepting atmosphere of NMP XVI from 2003. Let us trust our members to know how to behave with sensitivity and respect across gender, religion, and belief systems. We have grown and evolved together, and it’s time to reaffirm our shared bond.

With love, respect, and heartfelt gratitude to each one of you,

Ramu

*The Two Pillars of a Meaningful Life: Respect and Like*
– Ramu, 4 May 2025

Recently, I began reading a Tamil translation of one of the world’s greatest classics—Crime and Punishment, written nearly 200 years ago.

One sentence from the book, (roughly translated below) deeply impacted me and reshaped how I think about life and legacy:

– *”He was respected by a few for his relentless effort and hard work, but he was never liked by anyone.”*

This simple yet profound line led me into a period of deep reflection.

– *Many of us often confuse “respect” and “like.”*

– *We assume one leads to the other, or worse, believe they are the same. But they’re not.*

Consider this: people like music director Ilayaraja, poet Vairamuthu, and writer Jeyamohan command enormous respect for their brilliance and originality in their fields. Their mastery has earned them a revered place in the hearts of millions.

*Yet, I wonder—are they genuinely liked by as many?*

– *They might create the illusion of being liked, but it may actually stem from admiration, not affection.*

In contrast, individuals like Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Mother Teresa, J.R.D. Tata, and poet Kannadasan seem to strike a rare balance.

– *They are not only respected for their achievements but also liked for their warmth, compassion, and contributions to society beyond their core work.*

From this, a meaningful distinction emerges:

– Respect often comes from mastery, dedication, and lasting contributions to a specific field.

– Like stems from empathy, kindness, generosity, encouragement, and the ability to lift others up.

Visualize this as a graph with “Respect” on the horizontal axis and “Like” on the vertical axis.

The ideal is to be in the top-right quadrant—highly respected and genuinely liked.

Some individuals, like Ilayaraja or Vairamuthu, though towering figures in their domains, haven’t actively mentored or institutionalized their knowledge for the benefit of future generations. Their impact, while enormous, is often indirect.

On the other hand, those in the top-right quadrant often combine talent with compassion. They build institutions, mentor the next generation, engage in philanthropy, and appreciate the achievements of others. Their legacy is both felt and loved.

*A humble disclaimer:* I’ve mentioned a few well-known personalities not to criticize but to better illustrate the distinction between being respected and being liked.

All of them are remarkable in their own right. My goal is to inspire us to reflect and strive to become individuals who balance both— *those who are not only admired for what we do but also cherished for who we are.*

With compassion and respect,
Ramu

*Basic Understanding about “MIDLIFE CRISIS:*
– Ramu, 25/4/2025

Life has 4 STAGES:

*Stage #1 : IMPULSIVE MIND*

It’s an Early childhood where the individual is driven by their impulses and *can’t quite differentiate their inner feelings from external realities.*

*Stage #2: IMPERIAL MIND*

It’s the phase of ADOLESCENCE during which tendency to be *SELF-CENTRIC*.

* *The individual might recognize others’ feelings, but choose to prioritize their own needs.*

*Stage #3: SOCIALIZED MIND*

It begins at late adolescence.

It’s the period one who is more of *”OUTSIDE-IN”* tendency.

– *In this Stage, people seek external validation and are heavily influenced by expectations and norms of others.*

*Stage #4: SELF- AUTHORING MIND*

It’s the stage who is tending to move from *OUTSIDE-IN* to *INSIDE-OUT”* stage.

Here the individuals *craft theirs own belief systems, independent of external influences.*

They become *self-directed, managing conflicts between values and setting priorities based on personal beliefs.*

*#Final and 5th Stage: SELF-TRANSFORMING MIND*

This is a Stage where individuals see multiple facets of issues, recognizing their own perspective as *one of many.*

They embrace inter-connectedness, are comfortable with  contradictions and constantly re-evaluate deeply held beliefs.

*Reason for Mid-Life CRISIS:*

The interesting insight is, 58% of adults are in Stage#3. May be of 35 to 50 years group.

It’s the time, people tend to

*Move from:* “Socialized Mindset” or “OUTSIDE-IN”  value system or from Stage #3

*Move to:* “SELF-Authoring mindset” or “INSIDE-OUT” value system or stage #4.

Since one is tending to move from age old teachings from our own parents, from societal norms and expectations, from salary mindset, permanent employment mindset, from parents centric to….

…to move to his own value system, to do what he loves,  to create self-identity of his own, focus from parents to children, violation of social norms, etc…

…..causes huge stress and obviously every transitions cause huge upheavels in everyone’s mind and life since he has to adapt *Let go* mindset, results in Midlife crisis.

Sincerely yours,
Ramu

*ஆராரிரோ பாடியாதாரோ – தாய்க்கு ஒரு தாலாட்டு –  இளையராஜா, ஜேசுதாஸ், வைரமுத்து:*
– ராமு, 24/4/2025

இன்று இரவு நடைப்பயிற்சியின் போது இந்த பாட்டு கேட்க நேர்ந்தது. கேட்ட இடத்திலேயே கண்ணீருடன் இரண்டு முறை கேட்டேன்.

அதன் பிறகு நடக்க தோன்றவில்லை. துக்கம் தொண்டையை அடைக்கும் என்பார்களே, அது போல் மனநிலை.

இளையராஜாவின் இசையா, வைரமுத்துவின் வரிகளா, ஜேசுதாசின் குரலா, மூன்று அரக்கர்களும் சேர்ந்து (e)^ (3xஅரக்கர்கள்) –> e = mc^2 என்ற பூகம்பம் நிகழ்ந்தது போல்.

வரிகளை கவனியுங்கள்:

காட்சி: பத்மினி இறந்து கிடைக்கிறாள்.

(1) கணவனாக சிவாஜி பாடுவது போல் வரிகள்:

என் தெய்வமே இது பொய் தூக்கமா

நான் தூங்கவே நாளாகுமா!

நீ முந்திப் போனது நியாயம் இல்லையே;
நான் முந்திப் போகவே யோகம் இல்லையே!!

(2) மகனாக பாண்டியராஜன் பாடுவது போல் வரிகள்

பசித்தவன் கேட்கிறேன் பாற்சோறு எங்கே

உயிர் தந்த தேவிக்கு உயிர் இல்லையே!

பால் ஊட்டி பார்த்தியே, பால் ஊத்தலாமோ!

*அன்னம் போட்ட என் தாயே! உனக்கு அரிசி போட வந்தேனே!!*
———————————————
தைரியம் இருந்தால் கேட்டுப்பாருங்கள் நண்பர்களே!!

ராமு