For CAS systems to be efficient and stable, it seemes the system should possess as much diversity of participants and  independent thinking or free from any other influences of those participants as much are mandatory.

When the above two conditions deteriorate, “self organized criticality” or kind of avalanches happening in any markets or any CAS systems.

If my above understanding is correct, if stock market crash or bubble bust happens, can we understand that all participants are influenced towards narrow themes such as war, oil shock, etc…

ChatGpt Reply:

Yes, your understanding is broadly correct. In a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) like the stock market, diversity of participants and independent thinking are essential for stability. When these conditions deteriorate, the system can become highly sensitive to small disruptions, leading to large, unpredictable outcomes—like market crashes or bubble bursts.

In a market context, when most participants become influenced by a narrow set of themes or events—such as war, oil shocks, or specific economic policies—it reduces diversity of thought and behavior. This leads to herding behavior, where investors follow the same patterns, creating a lack of independent decision-making. As a result, the market can become over-concentrated in certain sectors or trends.

When too many participants act in the same way, the system can reach a tipping point. Small triggers, like changes in interest rates or geopolitical events, can then cause large-scale reactions, similar to an avalanche in the theory of “self-organized criticality.” This can lead to sharp corrections or crashes, as everyone tries to exit or adjust their positions simultaneously.

So, if a stock market crash or bubble burst occurs, it often signals that a large proportion of participants were fixated on narrow themes and lacked sufficient independent thought or diversification in their actions, which destabilized the system.

How Pheromones Work for Ants, Just Like Books for Humans:
🙏Ramu🙏 15/10/2024

In ancient times, humans were positioned at a lower level in the food chain, perhaps around the tenth or twelfth rank. But today, humans are at the top, with unmatched power to decide which species should survive on Earth and which are unnecessary. Think about what could be the single most important reason for this remarkable progress!

Researchers have identified the primary reason: cooperation and collaboration.

The significance of cooperation and sharing is that when each member of a group contributes their skills, physical labor, and knowledge towards a common goal, the final result is far greater than the sum of the individual efforts.

FINAL RESULT > SUM OF PARTS

It’s not surprising that this rare quality is found in humans, who are intelligent beings. However, I was amazed to learn that ants, too, possess this extraordinary quality.

Ants, like humans, live in colonies in large groups. For ants, the survival of the colony is far more important than the survival of an individual ant.

In line with this goal, ants venture out alone or in small groups from their colony in search of food.

Once an ant finds food, its goal is to find the shortest, quickest, and safest route to bring the food back to the colony.

What fascinates me is how ants share this shortest route from the food source to their colony with other ants, which is similar to how humans share the knowledge they learn through books.

As ants return to the colony from the food source, they release a chemical called pheromone along the way. The denser this chemical trail is, the more it indicates that many ants have chosen that path. Following ants use this pheromone trail to find the best route back to the colony.

It is through such cooperation and sharing that ants have survived on this Earth for over 150 million years (while the human species has existed for only 300,000 years).

Did our ancestors coin the phrase “Unity brings great benefits” by observing ants?

Cooperationally yours,

🙏Ramu🙏 9884384425

எறும்புகளுக்கு PHEROMONES எப்படியோ,  மனிதர்களுக்கு புத்தகங்கள் :
🙏ராமு🙏 15/10/2024

ஆதி காலத்தில் உணவுச் சங்கிலி வரிசையில் மிகவும் சாதாரணமாக பத்து அல்லது பனிரென்டாம் படி நிலைகளில் இருந்த மனித இனம் இன்று முதல் படியில் அசைக்க முடியாத அதிகாரத்துடன் இந்த பூமியில் எந்த உயிரினம் இருக்கவேண்டும், எந்த உயிரினம் தேவை இல்லை என்று முடிவு செய்யும் நிலைக்கு முன்னேறி இருப்பதற்கான ஒரே காரணமாக எதைக் கூற முடியும் என்று சிந்தனை செய்து பாருங்கள் நண்பர்களே!

தலையாய காரணமாக அறிஞர்கள் கண்டடைவது : கூட்டு முயற்சியும், கூட்டுப்பகிர்தலும் – Cooperation and Colloboration.

கூட்டு முயற்சி மற்றும் கூட்டு பகிர்தல் என்பதன் மகத்துவம் யாதெனில் ஒரு அணியில் உள்ள ஒவொருவருவரின் திறமை, உடல் உழைப்பு மற்றும் அறிவை ஒரு குறிப்பிட்ட இலக்ககிற்காக பயன் படுத்தும் போது கிடைக்கும் பயனின் அளவானது அணியின் ஒட்டுமொத்த அறிவு, திறமை மற்றும் உடல் உழைப்பின் கூட்டுதொகையை விட பன்மடங்கு அதிகமானதாக இருக்கும். (FINAL RESULT > SUM OF PARTS).


இத்தகைய அரிய குணம் ஆறறிவு கொண்ட மனிதனிடம் இருப்பது கூட ஆச்சிரியம் இல்லை. அந்த அரிய குணம் எறும்புகளிடம் இருப்பது அறிந்து திகைத்துப் போனேன்.

எறும்புகள் மனிதர்கள் போல் கூட்டம் கூட்டமாக காலனிகளில் வசிப்பவை. எறும்புகளுக்கு தாங்கள் உயிரோடு இருப்பதை விட தாங்கள் காலனிகள் உயிர்ப்புடன் இருப்பது மிக அவசியம்.

இந்த இலக்கிற்கு இணங்க
எறும்புகள் சிறிய கூட்டமாகவோ அல்லது தனியாகவோ தங்கள் மனம் போன போக்கில் இரை தேட காலனியில் இருந்து புறப்படும்.

அவ்வாறு இரையைக் கண்டுவிட்டால், எறும்புகளின் இலக்கு அந்த இரையை மிகச் சுருக்கமான பாதையை (shortest route) தேர்ந்தெடுத்து,  விரைவாக, பாதுகாப்பாக தங்கள் காலனிகளில் சேர்க்க முடியும் என்றாகிறது.

எறும்புகள் எப்படி இரை கிடைத்த இடத்தில் இருந்து தங்கள் காலனிகளுக்கு சுருக்கமான பாதையை தேர்ந்தெடுத்து அதை மற்ற சக எறும்புகளுடன் பகிர்ந்து கொள்கிறது என்பது மனிதர்கள் தாங்கள் கற்றறிந்த பாடங்கள் மற்றும் அனுபவங்களை புத்தகங்கள் மூலமாக சக மனிதர்களுடன் பகிர்ந்து கொள்வதற்கு இணையாக இருப்பதுதான் என் ஆச்சிரியம்.

எறும்புகள் உணவை கண்டடைந்த இடத்தில் இருந்து காலனிக்கு செல்லும் வழியில் ஒவ்வொரு எறும்பும் pheromone எனும் திரவம் அல்லது இரசாயணத்தை உமிழ்ந்த வண்ணம் தங்கள் காலணிகளை சென்று அடைகிறது.

அந்த இராசயானப் பாதை எவ்வளவு அடர்த்தியாக இருக்கிறதோ அந்த அளவு அந்தப் பாதை பல எறும்புகளால் தேர்ந்தெடுக்கப்பட்டு இருக்கிறது என்று அறிந்து பின் வரும் எறும்புகள் அந்த பாதையை பின்தொடர்கிறது.

இந்த கூட்டு முயற்சி மற்றும் கூட்டுப் பகிர்வு மூலமாகவோதான் எறும்புகள் 15 கோடி (150 மில்லியன்) ஆண்டுகளுக்கும் மேலாக ( மனித இனம் வெறும் 3 இலட்சம் ஆண்டுகள் மட்டுமே) இந்த பூமியில் உயிரிப்புடன் இருக்கிறதோ?

கூடி வாழ்ந்தால் கோடி நன்மை என்று எறும்புகளைப் பார்த்துதான் நம் முன்னோர்கள் வகுத்து இருப்பார்களோ?

கூட்டு முயற்சியில்,
🙏ராமு🙏 9884384425

Hi Venkatesh!!!

There has been a long silence from uour side. How are you? How things in Malaysia going on?

I want to get clarified from you one very sensitive issue I face.

Probably you too may sail in my boat as we both of us are blessed with single daughter.

It’s a sensitive question. So, I don’t mind even if you don’t address.

How do you engage your wife in your office time, reading time, your personal time, etc…?

Once we become avid readers, we may tend to prefer solitude. Isn’t it?

Though our gen poor female folks don’t expect their spouses to be taken outing frequently, we kind of matured guys, would like to engage them productively.

They have the only option of spending time at temple, listening to devotional songs, few crap TV serials.

They are not ready to inculcate the habits of reading, traveling, or going outing on their own.

They are not even ready for gossiping as they are wrongly taught gossip is bad.

I tried so many options. I tried to listen few serials by accompanied her. If I do so, I am internally unrest as so many wonderful books are waiting for me. If I take my books, she opts for lying on bed.

Travel too, they don’t enjoy much. They accompany us for the sake of accompanying us. If we go alone, or with male friends we can go for different places. When we go with spouses, we need to opt for generic tour spots, which I think it’s waste, but she accompanies as if her husband likes.

I couldn’t find “together time” that could engage both interestingly.

Of course, Sudha Murthy and NR Murthy travel absolutely in parallel track. The one nice thing about them is, both of them are capable of engaging themselves constructively but independently.

That is not happening with my wife. I am concerned whether it may lead to any psychological issues.

How can I approach this issue? Can you kindly throw some lights on this issue please….

Thanking you.

Sincerely yours,
Ramu

One of my friends recently asked, *”Is it essential for a financial adviser to be sufficiently wealthy?”*

I responded, “Absolutely, yes.” While professional qualifications may help if the adviser is young, *for a middle-aged financial adviser, their accumulated wealth speaks louder than any credentials.*

This is due to two key reasons:

1. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

2. Skin in the game.

He then countered, “Why don’t you apply the same criteria to the mason building your dream house?”

My reply:

There are two types of skills—hard skills and soft skills.

Hard skills are judged by the quality of craftsmanship.

Sculptors, artists, carpenters, and others fall into this category. When hiring a sculptor or carpenter, we evaluate them based on their previous work, not the quality of the furniture in their own home.

On the other hand, financial advisers, communication coaches, and personality development professionals provide soft skills.

For these professionals, if they are young and just starting out, qualifications are important.

However, if they are middle-aged, the main criterion clients consider is the professional’s own proficiency in their field.

For a financial adviser, this means being reasonably wealthy. For a communication coach, this means possessing excellent communication skills.

Additionally, as a secondary criterion, prospective clients should also consider how successfully the professional has served their existing clients.

Ultimately, the value financial professionals offer to their clients is entirely different from the services provided by a mason.

Professionally yours,
🙏Ramu🙏

It is an ONGOING 3 STEP processes.

#1: Acquiring significant concepts from many areas of knowledge. – Educating yourself.

#2: Learning to recognize patterns of similarity among them. – Learning to think differently.

#3: Adapt your way of life to this Interdisciplinary approach. – Implementation.

Fortunately, we don’t have to become expert in every field. You merely have to learn the fundamental principles – BIG ideas in physics, biology, social studies, psychology, philosophy, literature, mathematics – from the perspective of building LATTICEWORK of models in your mind.

Benjamin Franklin propounded 3 standing principles.

#1: Students must acquire basic skill sets: RRR – Reading, wRiting, aRithmatics, physical education and public speaking.

#2: Then Students must be introduced the bodies of knowledge from variety of disciplines.

#3: Finally Students should be taught to cultivate habits of mind by discovering connections that exist between various disciplines.

For example,

(1) Adam Smith’s principle of Laissez-faire economics to Charles Darwin’s concept of Natural Selection.

(2) Adaptation of species to the limited natural resources,  can be compared to the industry or the company eventually solves it by adapting to the business environment by various innovations.

Wisely yours,
🙏Ramu🙏

*Self-Interest at Work: No matter, whether it is +2 Failed Car Drivers or Highly Qualified Doctor – No difference:*
🙏 Ramu 🙏7/10/2024

Classical economists describe human beings as simple *”Maximizing Machines” driven by their own well-being.*

*Behavior of +2 Failed Acting Car Drivers:*

About a decade ago, a new trend emerged in all major Indian cities—hiring car drivers on an hourly basis. In Chennai today, it costs Rs 450 to Rs 500 to hire a car driver for 4 hours.

Enterprising women, usually equipped with nothing more than a smartphone and good communication skills, began establishing “call driver agencies” with no initial investment.

These women would collect drivers’ phone numbers and driving licenses, then connect them with car owners in need of drivers for a specific day and time. Out of the Rs 500 fee paid to the driver, Rs 100 served as a brokerage commission for the agency.

What often happens is, after building rapport with a particular car owner, the driver requests, *”Please call me directly, sir. Don’t go through the agency.”*

The driver’s goal is simple: maximize his well-being by pocketing the entire Rs 500, avoiding the Rs 100 commission owed to the agency.

As a consumer, I gain no financial advantage from calling the driver directly—I still have to pay Rs 500 regardless.

However, as comfort-seeking beings, my family and I might grow attached to certain drivers, and they exploit this comfort to increase their income, maximizing their well-being at the expense of the agency.

*Behavior of Highly Qualified Doctors:*

Recently, I visited a specialist doctor for my wife at Apollo Hospital in Chennai. The hospital charges Rs 1,000 for an outpatient consultation, likely split as Rs 600 for the doctor and Rs 400 for hospital administration expenses.

The doctor was cordial, a good listener, and we left satisfied with the visit.

A month later, during a review visit, he was as empathetic and attentive as before.

However, before we left, he made a similar request to that of the car drivers: *“In the future, you can consult me over the phone or via video call; there’s no need to come all the way.”*

After our third consultation, this time via video call, his assistant contacted us to collect the same Rs 1,000 fee that Apollo charges for in-person visits.

I realized then that economists are always right—humans are indeed maximizers of their own well-being.

Self-Interestingly Yours,
🙏 Ramu 🙏

*Today’s Thought: 1/10/2024*

There’s an old saying: *“Tell me who your friends are, and I’ll tell you who you are.”*

In today’s world, it might be more fitting to say: *“Show me your YouTube watch history and subscriptions, and I’ll tell you who you are.”*

*Thoughtfully yours,*
🙏Ramu 🙏

First, I want to congratulate Neerja Chowdhary and all who inspired her to create such a valuable work for India—something that will be remembered for decades, even centuries.

This is not a self-help book on “How to make successful decisions”, but rather a shocking revelation of “how decisions are made at the highest levels.”

Chowdhary dedicates roughly 90 pages to each of 6 Prime Ministers, focusing deeply on just one issue for each that changed India’s course.

1. Indira Gandhi – Chowdhary focuses on the Emergency. After being disqualified by the Allahabad court, she imposed Emergency—not for the nation’s welfare, but for self-preservation.

2. Rajiv Gandhi – The author delves into the Shah Bano case and the Muslim Women’s Bill. Rajiv, seeking balance, also unlocked the Babri Masjid site, causing alienation between Hindus and Muslims.

3. VP Singh – The shocking revelation here is that Singh’s decision to implement the MANDAL commission was not for social justice but to counterbalance Advani’s Rath Yatra.

4. Narasimha Rao – His indecision led to the fall of the Babri Masjid, leaving a permanent stain on Indian democracy.

5. Atal Bihari Vajpayee – The nuclear tests were driven by political survival, as his government was about to lose the confidence vote in Parliament.

6. Manmohan Singh – The one solace: Singh’s resolute stance on the Indo-US nuclear deal, which was driven by national interest.

Observations and Conclusions:

1. Decision-making at the Prime Ministerial level has been largely adhoc, no matter who the leader or party.

2. These decisions, impacting billions, were not made with a 50, 20, or even 10-year vision.

3. Most were short-sighted, responding to immediate firefighting crises or political needs.

4. The primary goal for each Prime Minister: staying in or returning to power.

This reminds me of a story about a UN representative who was a hardcore Atheist visited India long ago.

Despite observing that things weren’t functioning as they should, he saw India surviving and thriving.

He concluded that only a divine force could explain this, and so, he became a believer in God.

Thank you, friends.
Sincerely yours,
🙏Ramu🙏

My journey into understanding the arithmetic of politics began around 2000, during my preparation for the CAT 2001 exams.

It was a time when today’s prominent journalists—Barkha Dutt, Arnab Goswami, Sonia Verma, Vikram, and the slightly senior Rajdeep Sardesai—were emerging under the guidance of Prannoy Roy at STAR News.

During that period, I was deeply focused on preparing for CAT, and to stay updated with current affairs, I made it a habit to watch STAR News from 9 pm to 10 pm daily.

This was also when I became an admirer of Pramod Mahajan, particularly for his communication style. I still vividly recall how Mahajan introduced Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam as the NDA’s Presidential candidate, and the way Kalam addressed the press, reminiscent of a professor speaking to students.

All of these memories came rushing back as I revisited the years of Prime Minister Vajpayee’s tenure, from 1999 to 2004 through the book: “How Prime Ministers Decide”.

In my view, Mani Ratnam is one of the few directors who can masterfully depict mythological and controversial biographical characters on screen. He has a unique ability to make ordinary actors embody roles in such a way that even casual audiences can draw parallels to mythology or real-life figures.

For instance, his film Roja draws inspiration from the mythological tale of Satyavan and Savitri. Thalapathy is based on the Mahabharata. Iruvar delves into the political rivalry between MGR, Karunanidhi, and Jayalalitha. Guru was a biopic inspired by Dhirubhai Ambani.

From 1998 to 2004, there was a similarly dramatic but controversial cold war between Atal Bihari Vajpayee, L.K. Advani, and Brajesh Mishra. This trio’s dynamic, particularly the political rivalry and power struggles, has been described in vivid detail by Neerja Chowdhury in her book, How Prime Ministers Decide.

I believe Mani Ratnam is the perfect director to bring this story to life on the big screen. With top Bollywood actors playing these iconic roles, this film has every potential to be a blockbuster.

*Intriguingly yours,*
🙏Ramu🙏