*”In the long run, we are all dead”* this philosophical quote by Nobel laureate Keynes,
👆 surfaced between Arun Jaitely, former FM and Dr. Manmohan Singh, former PM after demonitisation fiasco.
Few days ago, one of my younger relatives called me in a somber tone and grumbled at me as one of his hard earned investments towards future, got backfired.
I told him in a conciliatory tone that, if every efforts of everyone yields expected results, and the world will be full of Buffetts, Gatess, Modi’ss, Newton’s, Einsteins, etc.
In investment and economics, there’s a wonderful term called “Reversing to the MEAN”, meaning that, eventually, everything tend to become FLAT.
For example, if I purchased a land for 1 lac last year and I can sell it for 2 lac this year, my returns are 100%.
If I project the same returns for 60 years, my 1 lac investment would turn out to be ₹115 x 10^23 (is equivalent to 115 crores of crores of crores) which may exceed GDP of few countries or one can repay entire debts of certain countries.
In investment parlance, any investment how high it may fly in short term, it would eventually reverse it’s trend in the long term and settled to the average returns of that industry standard average say 15% and it would again reverse it to match the countries economic growth in further long term say 6 to 7% and again it would reverse it’s trend to catch up with global trend of 3 to 4% in further long term.
Simply speaking, if few school buddies had grown up in similar environment and intelligence, how much ever one of the few gained edge over others in short term, say 5 times can not continuously maintain it’s trend and settled in to 20 times superior to the other peers during their 60s or 70s.
It has to be eventually reversed its trend to catch up those guys of about 1.5 or 2 times at their retirement age.
Few exceptions may be there and that exceptions may be purely because of 100% luck of going with trend or changed his industry or by means of highly immoral.
When Mohammed Azarudeen scored 3 consecutive centuries oh his debut, i ignorantly guestimated that Azarudeen may require another 25 tests to beat Don Broadman record of 26 test centuries.
I never expected MSD or Sachin would have to face the tough question of, “When is he going to hang his boots???”
The difference between my father and me is hardly I have earned 1 extra bedroom more than my dad and extra spacious car, otherwise, both of our lives at our respective 70s would be similar.
*Then the hard question haunt at us is, if most of us are going to be almost equal in later stages of life, what’s the question of taking so much risk, being enterprising and learning so much????*
*That’s where the beauty of life lies. The difference lies between your peers who had led ordinary life filled with very few cautious decisions and your active life full of decisions may end up with similar results in the long term say 60.*
*However, after 60/70, your peer may be LIVING TO DIE, BUT YOU LIVE FOR LIVING.*
I concluded my relative saying, “As long as you kind of youngster is approaching me for your life problems and keeping the faith in me, I can provide you solutions for your life problems, I have MEANING in my life.”
For simple understanding, the primary difference is, “In the long term, *are we living to DIE or are we LIVING TO LIVE enthusiastically?”*
Aspiring to live enthusiastically,
🙏Ramu🙏
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